Week 3 Readings

Required Reading

  1. R. J. Lempert (2019)

    • I usually like to recommend seminal papers where possible, but I think this later piece is a better starting place.

  2. Robert J. Lempert & Collins (2007)

    • This is the paper we’re going to review for our case study on Wednesday. I’ll lead this one to give you a working example on how to lead a case study review.

Optional Reading

You might have better intuition and instincts than me, but it took me many, many readings of the above, papers below, and external material (e.g., presentations, webinars, conversations, etc.,) to feel comfortable with the concept of robustness in the context of robust decision-making - and I still make conceptual mistakes and have a lot to learn. I keep the optional readings to just a few papers because I know some of you will push yourself to read all required and optional readings each week, and I don’t want you to burnout when it’s going to take more than just one reading to feel comfortable with this concept.

  • Groves et al. (2019)
  • Herman Jonathan D. et al. (2015)
  • Quinn et al. (2020)
  • Doss-Gollin & Keller (2023)

References

Doss-Gollin, J., & Keller, K. (2023). A subjective bayesian framework for synthesizing deep uncertainties in climate risk management. Earths Future, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003044
Groves, D. G., Molina-Perez, E., Bloom, E., & Fischbach, J. R. (2019). Robust decision making (RDM): Application to water planning and climate policy. In Decision making under deep uncertainty (pp. 135–163). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2\_7
Herman Jonathan D., Reed Patrick M., Zeff Harrison B., & Characklis Gregory W. (2015). How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change? Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 141(10), 04015012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000509
Lempert, R. J. (2019). Robust decision making (RDM). In Decision making under deep uncertainty (pp. 23–51). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2\_2
Lempert, Robert J., & Collins, M. T. (2007). Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: Comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Anal., 27(4), 1009–1026. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00940.x
Quinn, J. D., Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P. M., & Steinschneider, S. (2020). Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral? Earths Future, 8(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001650