Week 2 Readings

Required Reading

  1. Oddo et al. (2020)

    • This article builds on a classic decision analysis framework by incorporating key uncertainties and multiple objectives, demonstrating how these considerations affect the representation of “optimal” strategies. It clearly distinguishes between “deep” and “shallow” uncertainties, and includes a global sensitivity analysis on how uncertainty in parameters influence objective evaluation. Table 1 is great.

Optional Reading

I want to provide you with more references for identifying, characterizing, and quantifying uncertainties in general and in decision analysis papers.

More on uncertainty analysis in general: Srikrishnan et al. (2022) and related e-book on uncertainty characterization and quantification in MSD analyses

More on deep uncertainty: Lempert et al. (2024)

Papers with Methods sections (or Supplementary Info) worth reviewing to help with your module progress report (look at the presentation of the analysis workflow, how the authors represent and account for various types of uncertainty, etc.,):

  • Oddo et al. (2020)
  • Zarekarizi et al. (2020)
  • Pollack et al. (2025)

References

Lempert, R. J., Lawrence, J., Kopp, R. E., Haasnoot, M., Reisinger, A., Grubb, M., & Pasqualino, R. (2024). The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC. Frontiers in Climate, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054
Oddo, P. C., Lee, B. S., Garner, G. G., Srikrishnan, V., Reed, P. M., Forest, C. E., & Keller, K. (2020). Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management. Risk Anal., 40(1), 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12888
Pollack, A. B., Santamaria-Aguilar, S., Maduwantha, P., Helgeson, C., Wahl, T., & Keller, K. (2025). Funding rules that promote equity in climate adaptation outcomes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(2), e2418711121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2418711121
Srikrishnan, V., Lafferty, D. C., Wong, T. E., Lamontagne, J. R., Quinn, J. D., Sharma, S., et al. (2022). Uncertainty analysis in multi‐sector systems: Considerations for risk analysis, projection, and planning for complex systems. Earths Future, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002644
Zarekarizi, M., Srikrishnan, V., & Keller, K. (2020). Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks. Nat. Commun., 11(1), 5361. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19188-9